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The Sky is falling
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Re: The Sky is falling
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SuperFische
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Sep 22 08 2:51 PM
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Co-rection day! I hope you locked in some profits (if applicable) before close on friday!
It's pretty obvious that the "ripple" of all this mess is going to be far and wide...
Government intervention into the free-market is something that although necessary, will rewrite our financial system..
really, things will never be the same again.. and that's just it..
I really liked what Paulson said.. and I appreciate the restraint and review that washington is taking to try to get this thing right..
I don't think that the gvnmnt should go too far with these bailouts... They were faults of greed and mismanagement..
and though this is dealing a hefty blow to the systems.. *it is all consequence of risky, foolish leveraging* (basically making moves "on credit").. and if the gvnmnt bails everybody out, this better be the last time they do so.. Because if these kinds of bailouts are something to be expected (which is how the universal banks (BOA for example) are STILL playing it ie: using deposit assets to "guarantee" and leverage simply because they know they're insured by the "full faith of the united states gvrnmnt")... then the treasury is basically destroying the free-market.. creating win-win's for banks that abuse their status and power..
Now that Glass-Steagall is in effect dead (a law banning the tying of retail and investment banks,wiki it) .. EVERYTHING is on a very very thin line.. with banks just lining up for protection behind the government.. and not eliminating the problems.. but reducing, and perhaps more often, delaying them.. leaving thier consequences in the hands of fate... only this time, if fate blows a sour wind, it will quite bluntly, be the end of the western world. All it's really doing is uping the stakes.. The whole bailout can basically be summed up in one phrase:
"Double or nothing"
So, For now, it'll be a slow bleed.. and the bandage will get soaked and need to be changed again soon.. If people (90% of which will undoubtedly be non-western/allied) get bullish, then there is a chance things will pick up to the point of reconciliation.. but again, even in the best case scenario, things will never be the same.. And the worst part is, even the little dudes could've seen this coming years ago..
As for "Wall Street Investors"... this isnt like the dot-com bust.. or the asian crisis.. this is system wide.. as far as this goes.. and it's implications.. we are all "Wall Street Investors".. This world is a big tangled web.. nothing is truly "safe" or shelterd anymore.. hence the failure of insurers and leveragers... it's a big house of cards..
There is no use in shifting around your cargo.. There is a hole in the hull.. and unless we make the sacrifices necessary to repair it (ie: discipline in what to regulate tighter and what we should just sit on the shore and watch sink teary-eyed) , you might as well sit tight... if the ship sinks, it does'nt matter where your cargo is... Though, if you want to take a chance (or toss a line to the otherside of the hedges).. drop (atleast some of) it into a dingy and paddle it off to another asset class and/or another (non-western) country..
On a lighter note:
THANK GOD FOR THE JAPANESE COMING IN TO PLAY!!!
I am beyond happy and beyond grateful that it is the Japanese who have stepped up to the plate to help out..
It was very very close to being the chinese gvnmnt.. our wolves in filthy damp sheep clothes..
Our good and proven friends in the far-east have thrown their weight in.. and not only does this give some help where it's needed,
it further intwines two nations which are ultimately partners in this world.
MUFJ (practically the worlds largest comm. bank) basically bailed out Morgan Stanley today... taking a 20% stake..
and Nomura grabbed up Lehmans Asian op's.. and along with PWC and Barclays (friendly flags), Nomura is in talks to pick up the European pieces of the business~
The ultimate idea of positivity:
There is no reason why we can't fix what WE built!
.
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